With a loosed alliance of the quintet of former speaker Yakubu Dogara, elder statesman Bello Kirfi, ex-Governor Isah Yuguda, Idris Abdulaziz (Islamic cleric) and Yakubu Abdullahi popularly known as Wakilin Birnin, Governor Bala Mohammed’s reelection bid was made easy.
The five-men group had separately laboured [in vain] for the All Progressives Congress, APC’s Sadique Abubakar to emerge victorious against Governor Mohammed of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) — but analysts opine that lack of unison truncated their endorsements for Sadique.
Although there are other determinants, the foregoing was one of the factors that coasted Bala to victory.
In this piece, WikkiTimes’ Yakubu Mohammad analysed how certain factors played out in the just-concluded governorship election in Bauchi State.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), declared that Mohammed won in 15 local councils, leaving five for his major contender, Sadique.
It stuns many that Governor Mohammed won in Kirfi, Bauchi, Bogoro and Tafawa Balewa — strongholds to forces that drew the battle lines against him.
But what marred and made the entire process?
LOOSE ALLIANCE
Had the quintet of Dogara, Kirfi, Abdulaziz, Wakilin Birni and Yuguda worked as an intended team to defeat Governor Mohammed, Sadique would be enveloped by the spirit of victory at the moment. He had envisioned the alliance to work in his favour, but it boomeranged. Many believed the alliance was sounding like populists who bang on emotions rather than grassroots mobilization. While Governor Bala was busy connecting to the grassroots and using his proxies for house-to-house mobilization, the loosed gang were sounding alarmists, and only appear to be using the media to “make noise.”
Kirfi, a dethroned traditional title holder and member of the Bauchi Emirate Council had vowed to unseat Mohammed. The elder statesman thought working alone could easily unseat an incumbent administration, but he failed, as Bala brazenly floored him in Kirfi local council.
Kirfi was not alone. Dogara was defeated in Bogoro and Tafawa Balewa where he commands some respect. Jointly, Abdulaziz, Wakilin Birni and Yuguda got a share of the defeat in Bauchi local council where they hail from.
Though, Dogara’s defeat could be interpreted as protest voting. He had supported a Muslim to replace him as a member representing Bogoro Dass Tafawa Balewa. This did not sit well with his people at Bogoro who are majorly Christians and who wanted Kefas Magaji to succeed Mr Dogara.
Beyond their personal shortfalls in their bases, WikkiTimes understands that they did not work as a team to deliver Sadique, hence, their loose alliance helped Mohammed’s reelection.
WHERE APC GOT IT WRONG
According to analysts, the political setting in Bauchi is so clear and distinct. Any default to the setting is usually frowned upon.
Although Sadique is from Giade LGA, he is mostly seen to have his base in Bauchi LGA. He would make a grievous mistake by picking his deputy from Bauchi LGA. Bauchians from North and South do not like the APC’s gubernatorial contest formation.
APC in Bauchi may agree no less with WikkiTimes that its campaign structure was weak. This was so because the party lacked coordination with other aspirants within.
For instance, Shehu Buba, a grassroots politician who emerged victorious in Bauchi South was not carried along in Sadique’s movement. This among other factors affected APC and favoured PDP.
Buba has the capacity to deliver Toro and other LGAs to Sadique, but he wasn’t co-opted into the team.
MENDING BROKEN TIES WITH STAKEHOLDERS
One key factor that helped Governor Mohammed emerge victorious was his ability to re-strategize and mend broken relationships with critical stakeholders in the PDP. Aware of the gang-up against him, he worked hard to consolidate his support base and ensure that he had the backing of influential individuals and groups in the state.
For instance, Governor Mohammed ensured that Senator Abdul Ahmed Ningi, a formidable figure at Bauchi central remained in his camp. That helped him quash Abubakar’s APC at the central zone. Abdulrazaq Nuhu Zaki, his commissioner for Local Government and Chieftaincy Affairs also played a significant role in the zone.
This was particularly important, given the high stakes of the election and the fact that his major challenger was seen to have been endorsed by influential godfathers in the state. By securing the support of key stakeholders within his party, he was able to build a broad coalition of supporters and ensured that he had the necessary backing to win the election.
Another factor that worked in Governor Mohammed’s favour was the sympathy wave generated by the gang-up against him.
Bauchi State has a history of going against the wishes of godfathers during elections, and the governor’s major challenger was seen as being backed by influential politicians who were playing the role of godfathers.
Historically, Bauchi voters have always kicked against politicians seen to be backed by godfathers.
The seeming backing by the “godfathers” of Sadique Abubakar generated sympathy for Governor Mohammed, particularly among rural voters who believed that godfathers were against the interest of the masses. The attempted gang-up against Mohammed inadvertently created a sympathy wave that worked in Bala’s favour, with many people who may have been on the fence about him or who were undecided about voting for him being galvanized to support him because they felt he was being unfairly treated.
Governor Mohammed’s own doggedness and effort also contributed to his success. He has been a tough fighter who is willing to aggressively pursue what he wants. This suggests that he took his re-election bid seriously and was willing to put in extra effort to ensure that he emerged victorious.
He worked hard to campaign, engage with voters, and build a broad coalition of supporters across the state.
THE FOURTH ESTATE’S ROLE
The media also played a significant role in Governor Mohammed’s re-election bid. The media’s role in shaping public opinion and shaping the narrative around Mohammed’s leadership gave him additional impetus. The governor’s accomplishments such as infrastructural development during his first term as amplified by the media also resonated well with many people and helped to secure his re-election. His projects such as roads, housing, hospitals, schools, and the rest helped him gain additional support from voters.
Governor Mohammed also had the support of a well-organized campaign team that was able to mobilize voters, engage with stakeholders, and effectively communicate his message to the electorate. His Campaign Director-General, Farouk Mustapha, is seen as a grassroots politician with a deep affinity with voters across the nooks and crannies of Bauchi. This was an advantage that helped the governor in his bid for re-election.
POWER OF INCUMBENCY
The power of incumbency cannot be overlooked as a factor that contributed to Governor Mohammed’s success. As the incumbent governor, he had access to the state’s resources and all the security agents in his favour. This helped him manoeuvre his way to victory, despite the obstacles he faced from both within and outside his party.
VIOLENT CAMPAIGN KILLINGS
Rightly or wrongly, a series of killings that occurred during the campaigns were blamed on Sadique Abubakar’s APC. The incumbent Bala Mohammed and his supporters convinced voters that the APC’s campaign was characterized by violence, intimidation, and killings. They cited two incidents in Misau and Duguri where violence linked to the APC’s campaign rallies separately led to the deaths of two individuals. The PDP alleged that Mr. Sadique’s campaign was a “do-or-die affair.” The PDP also accused the opposition APC of “recruiting soldiers” to work in Mr Sadique’s favour. It amplified these claims, and it ultimately worked in its favour.
