Barely two years before Nigeria’s next election cycle, the political atmosphere is already heating up. Politicians are stirring ambitions, forging alliances, and behind-the-scenes maneuvering is in full swing. Across political leanings, the stalwarts, the godfathers, and the influentials are working to foist the foistable. As the political permutations continue to unfold, some prominent political actors within the All Progressives Congress in Bauchi State are touted to be strategizing to vie for the 2027 governorship election under the opposition APC.
Constitutionally, Governor Bala Mohammed of the Peoples Democratic Party is set to exit Ramat House, having served his two terms in office. Throughout its history, Bauchi politics has been defined by intense power struggles that have sometimes erupted into violence during transitional periods. Incumbents frequently try to control succession outcomes, but these efforts have consistently proven unsuccessful. The main opposition and the ruling party engage in the most intense battles during high-stakes transitions, which were demonstrated in 2007 and 2015.
Ambitious contenders’ intra- and inter-party rivalry manifests daily from the shadows of the ‘godfathers’, each determined to chart a new course for the state.
No fewer than eight prominent party stalwarts—ranging from seasoned politicians and diplomats to military veterans and technocrats—are believed to be positioning themselves to clinch the party’s ticket.
Each aspirant brings a distinct blend of experience, political networks, and personal ambition, setting the stage for what promises to be a fiercely competitive battle within the APC.
WikkiTimes analysis reveals that the top contenders are not just aspiring for the governorship; they are fighting to become the symbol of APC’s resurgence in Bauchi, a state that has experienced significant political swings between 2015 through to 2019. Their prospects hinge not only on their political clout but also on their ability to address the pressing issues that resonate with the people of Bauchi.
The stakes couldn’t be higher. Bauchi, a state grappling with challenges ranging from youth unemployment to out-of-school children, needs a leader with a vision and resilience. APC’s choice of candidate could be a make-or-break factor, influencing voter sentiment and determining the party’s chances of reclaiming the governorship seat it lost to PDP in 2019. As the contenders map out their strategies, their ability to traverse party dynamics and appeal to a broad spectrum of voters will be key.
But beyond the glossy campaign promises lies a crucial question: who among these contenders has the political stamina and grassroots support to secure the party’s ticket and win over most of Bauchi’s diverse and complicated electorate? The answer will depend on factors like alliances, national appeal, financial muscle, and the ability to present a compelling vision that unites dissatisfied political gladiators across party lines and rural and urban voters.
As the APC’s internal race gathers momentum, all eyes are on the party’s decision-making process. Will it favor experience and technocracy over fresh ideas, or will it strike a balance between both? To the contenders, the road to the governorship is fraught with challenges, but it’s also an opportunity to redefine leadership in Bauchi. The countdown has long begun, and the political arena is heating up with aspirants struggling for the party’s ticket.
WikkiTimes adopted a multifaceted approach and reviewed profiles, records, challenges, and chances for the candidates. The analysis does not arrange the hopefuls in any special order or ranking.
Ambassador Yusuf Tuggar
With his diplomatic expertise and vast network as Nigeria’s Foreign Affairs Minister, a former member of the House of Representatives and erstwhile Nigeria’s Ambassador to the Republic of Germany, Tuggar is considered a strong aspirant.
While Tuggar’s diplomatic portfolio positions him as one of the most internationally accomplished aspirants, his prolonged absence from local party structures raises questions about his on-ground viability in Bauchi’s rural constituencies. He contested for the Bauchi governorship in 2011 under CPC and lost to Isah Yuguda. Tuggar also enjoys federal might from the current APC-led federal government. His international achievements are impressive; his ability to translate these into local relevance and connect with Bauchi’s grassroots electorate will determine his chances. Two APC insiders, speaking anonymously to WikkiTimes, claim that Tuggar’s team has begun informal consultations with Toro and Katagum LGAs delegates. Although WikkiTimes could not independently verify this claim, his fierce criticisms of Governor Bala Mohammed, according to pundits, were to re-establish his political presence.
Reconnecting with the grassroots and leveraging his global experience to attract foreign investments will be pivotal for his success.
In contrast, some observers argue that he has been detached from the day-to-day political realities and grassroots structures within Bauchi State due to his prolonged absence from the local political scene.
This detachment may make it difficult for him to reconnect with the electorate, particularly rural voters prioritising consistent local engagement and visible community presence. His opponents might exploit this gap by painting him as an elite figure with limited understanding of regional challenges and aspirations. Pundits also point to his lack of a solid and well-established political base within the Bauchi APC’s complex internal structure. While his diplomatic credentials and technocratic skills are top-notch, they may not easily translate into strong intra-party alliances or the type of grassroots mobilization necessary to win party primaries and general elections.
In Bauchi politics, where political loyalty networks, patronage systems, and personal relationships play a significant role, Tuggar may struggle to compete with candidates who have maintained stronger ties with party stakeholders and local influencers over the years.
Professor Muhammad Ali Pate
He is Nigeria’s current Coordinating Minister of Health and Social Development. An internationally acclaimed health expert and former Minister of State for Health, Professor Pate’s credentials stand out. Professor Pate has publicly prioritized reducing maternal mortality rates by 40% through expanded rural healthcare clinics, a policy detailed in his plans as minister. He also advocates for vocational training partnerships with firms to tackle youth unemployment—a key concern in Bauchi, where 62% of under-30s lack formal jobs according to the National Bureau of Statistics.. He contested for the Bauchi governorship seat in 2019 under PRP. He vied for the 2023 APC governorship primaries but lost to Amb. Sadique Abubakar. He enjoys President Tinubu’s unparalleled goodwill. The traditional title holder of Chigarin Misau is renowned for his contributions to public health, having served as the Minister of State for Health between 2011 and 2013.
He also served as the Executive Director of the National Primary Health Care Development Agency (NPHCDA). Between 2019 and 2021, he became the World Bank’s Director of Health and Director of the Bank’s Finances.
Before his ministerial appointment, he was the President of the Gavi Vaccine Alliance, a global vaccine company. He recently disclosed his intention to contest the Bauchi State governorship election come 2027.
He said, “We are very close with the grassroots in the state, and I think the issues facing the state are very clear. But it will not come to be if the party is not united.
“My singular focus is to unify APC in Bauchi to support the President in achieving what he wants to achieve. I am ready to serve, and it is also with a mission to develop our state and also to develop our country”, he was quoted as saying recently.
Nonetheless, his limited grassroots mobilization and political alliances and his perceived lack of deep-rooted political structures in the state could be a hurdle in navigating Bauchi’s political dynamics.
Like Tuggar, analysts suggest that his episodic appearance in the state’s politics is of concern to many. “We see him as a seasonal politician or at best, an itinerant politician. I think he typifies the Fulani character in him. You know the Fulani man is a seasonal adventurist, who moves with his cows when the season calls him—that is how we see Prof Ali Pate. He only appears during electioneering and disappears to his UN organs when he loses,” an APC youth leader who sought anonymity told WikkiTimes.
Analysts argue that despite holding a ministerial position, the minister may struggle to compete with aspirants who have maintained stronger ties with party stakeholders and local influencers for a long time.
Ambassador Sadique Baba Abubakar
The former Chief of Air Staff and 2023 APC gubernatorial candidate, Ambassador Abubakar, is no stranger to the political spotlight in Bauchi. His military background and previous political experience provide him with an edge. Left without an appointment after the election, Abubakar appears to be struggling to be relevant to the current APC-led federal government scheme. His wife, Sadiya Farouq, who gave him solid support in 2023, has become a subject of investigation by the EFCC over an alleged N37.1bn fraud. His resolve to address past challenges and rebuild trust will be pivotal to his success.
Many observers believe he has grown noticeably silent in his criticism of the ruling PDP, missing a key opportunity to stay politically active and energized with his support base. “We had expected him to be more critical of the PDP-led administration in the state because he has the financial muscle and courage as a military man, but unfortunately, he has gone impotent and continues to appear very weak and voiceless”, a party insider told WikkiTimes.
Many also fear that he has not fully transitioned from military-style leadership to “a full Democrat,” a risk that voters and stakeholders perceive as authoritarian or rigid.
In 2023, Sadique clinched the APC ticket but finished as a runner-up to the incumbent Governor Mohammed.
The former Ambassador to Chad is likely to make a comeback in 2027, given his performance in the last governorship election. Many say his military career, particularly his tenure as Nigeria’s Chief of Air Staff, equipped him with appreciable leadership capabilities, strategic planning skills, and discipline.
His previous connections with local voters in the state ahead of the 2023 elections can also provide him with leverage to attract more votes.
Senator Shehu Buba Umar
Senator Shehu Buba Umar, currently representing Bauchi South in the Senate’s upper legislative chamber, is a grassroots politician who has assumed some influence in Bauchi’s political terrain. Thanks to his appointment as the Senate Committee on National Security and Intelligence Chairman. He enjoys close ties with the National Security Adviser to President Tinubu, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, which could earn Senator Buba some presidential might and sympathy. He has strategically continued to make himself relevant outside his immediate base to other parts of Bauchi over the last two years. Senator Buba is a fierce critic of the policies and programmes of the PDP-led administration in Bauchi.
His criticism of Governor Bala Mohammed was believed to have led to the Bauchi Emirate stripping him of his traditional title of Mujaddadi. Since then, a political group called Shehu Buba Vanguard (SBU Vanguard) has drummed support for the Senator’s Guber bid.
When responding to similar calls in Zaranda Village of Toro Local Government last year, the senator said he would respond at the appropriate time.
As Chairman of the Senate Committee on National Security and Intelligence, Senator Buba sponsored some bills, including the Cybercrime (Prohibition and Prevention) Act (Amendment) Bill 2023.. While Governor Bala accused Buba of ties to banditry, no investigations have found him wanting so far. Nonetheless, the opposition conversation circulating in Bauchi South continues to reference the scandal, potentially alienating moderate voters who are wary of insecurity. “The allegation that he sponsored a suspected bandit to pilgrimage continue to ring bell in the minds of many people, and this is a concern to many voters especially given escalating insecurity in the state”, an APC pundit who asked not to be named because he was not authorised to speak on behalf of the party has said.
According to the party pundit, another factor that could work against Senator Buba is that “He comes across as arrogant—unlike other politicians who know when to show humility, especially when they need support. Shehu doesn’t bother with that. Some critics also say he lacks the intellectual depth to lead because even in the Senate, he’s not vociferous, perhaps because of his grammatical infidelity.”
Others also believe he could face a challenge picking the ticket, considering other tough contenders. His ability, however, to appeal to a broader base could turn things around in his favor. In 2023, Buba massively mobilised his base to emerge victorious, a clout many argue may work in his favour.
Barrister Mohammed Abdullahi Abubakar
Barrister Abubakar served as the Governor of Bauchi State from 2015 to 2019. He is the first incumbent to lose a reelection bid in the state since the country returned to democratic rule in 1999. He faced criticisms regarding certain policy implementations. Makama Babba (his traditional title) began his career in the Civil Service, where he rose through the ranks to become the Bauchi State Attorney General and Commissioner for Justice.
He ran for public office as Governor of Bauchi State in 2015 under the APC platform and won the election, defeating the incumbent party’s candidate by over 370,000 votes.
Before his foray into politics, he was appointed Resident Electoral Commissioner of the the Independent National Electoral Commission and served in Kogi, Delta, Plateau and Rivers States between 1999 and 2003.
Having served as Governor, Barrister Abubakar knows governance, state structures, and political terrain, giving him an administrative advantage.
However, his 2019 electoral loss and perceived disconnect with grassroots voters weaken his appeal. He was also accused of corruption and investigated by the PDP-led government in the state.
The APC’s internal dynamics, particularly rival power blocks and new contenders, and also criticisms of his past tenure remain key threats to his bid to stage a comeback.
Senator Halliru Dauda Jika
A former lawmaker and a known figure in Bauchi politics, Senator Jika has legislative experience and name recognition. His strength lies in his ability to bridge divides within the party. He was the first runner up in the 2023 Bauchi APC governorship primaries. Jika defected to the New Nigeria People’s Party, NNPP, but came a distant third during the 2023 governorship election. He returned to the APC, but will face the challenge of positioning himself as a fresh and dynamic choice in a field of strong contenders. His youthful exuberance still resonates well with a greater segment of Bauchi’s youthful population.
Nura Manu Soro
A former Bauchi State Commissioner for Finance, Nura Manu Soro, is seen as a young and energetic candidate. His financial expertise and youth appeal could attract a new demographic of voters. He was the second runner-up in the 2023 APC primaries. Though Soro lacks extensive political tenure, his stint as Finance Commissioner was marked by initiatives such as the digital payroll cleanup, and the fight against workers has earned him credibility among young professionals. Strategic alignment with youth-driven groups or urban voting blocs could become his biggest asset.
Dr. Musa Babayo
A respected public servant, Dr. Babayo’s intellectual approach and experience in governance make him a compelling candidate. His challenge, however, lies in balancing his perceived elite position with the need to connect with the grassroots and manage intra-party rivalries. According to a party stalwart, Dr. Babayo is seen as stinkingly rich “but is still struggling to gain grassroots acceptance across the state.”
Speculators have also not ruled out the contest of other party politicians, such as Captain Bala Jibrin (Rtd.) and Abdullahi Adamu Usman Danchina.
The APC in Bauchi State would present a formidable platform for diverse candidates, giving the electorate a broad spectrum of choices.
The candidates’ ability to connect with the grassroots, articulate clear and actionable policies, and build robust political alliances will significantly influence their chances of success in party primaries and the general election come 2027.
The APC’s zoning arrangement, which informally rotates key positions across Bauchi’s three senatorial zones, could limit a certain candidate’s prospects. For instance, with Bauchi North having produced the last major APC candidate in 2023, pressure is mounting for a Bauchi South or Central contender to emerge. This makes alliances within the state APC structures critical.
To be continued…
Haruna Mohammed Salisu and Aminu Adamu contributed to the reporting and editing of this story.
